You Suck! Sure, you can beat up on the Bears D on monday night, but where were you against the Cardinals. You suck. Retire now you lousy piece of shit. You suck!
In the comments section of "Don't Bet Local", Paige tells us not to bet at all, saying it's for suckers. I, of course, disagree. First and formost, sports betting is entertainment. As long as it's approached this way and the gambler is willing to lose, it can be alot of fun. And as far as gambling goes, sports betting can be very economical. Let's say your in Las Vegas and you enjoy gambling. You can place a $50 wager on a football game, and your entertainment cost will be under $20 an hour (if you lose). Contrast that with a hand of blackjack, which can cost you $20 in less than a minute. On the other hand, your potentail winning is only $20/hour.
But beyond that, sports betting is one of the few bets where the odds are not always in favor of the house. You see, when Vegas determines a point spread, they really don't care about the outcome of the game. In fact, if they get the spread exactly right, both sides "push", and vegas doesn't win a thing. What Vegas is concerned with is parity in the betting. You see, Vegas doesn't like to gamble, Vegas likes guaranteed money. So they're ultimate goal is to determine a point spread which will result in an equal betting on both sides. This way, the bets "wash" and Vegas earns the vig (normally 10% of the losing bets). When this happens, it's equivalent to earning 5% of all bets, with zero risk involved. Now, this would mean little if the games were entirely games of chance, but they're not. They're determined by the results of human actions. Sure, most people don't know enough to consistently win, but it is possible. That's more than can be said for just about every other type of betting out there.
Now, I don't imply that I know more about football than the average better. In fact, I'd wager that I know significantly less. However, I tend to make my picks based on my skill at pattern recognition and my understanding of the general public's train of thought. You see, if you understand that Vegas is only concerned with keeping the bets even, and you understand the logic of why people are placing their bets, you will potentially have an advantage. The next most important thing to understand is your own personal betting habits. On a winning streak? Resist the urge to increase you bet. Losing? Do not double down. Regardless of previous outcomes, the size of your wage should always be directly related to your confidence in your pick. For this reason, you shouldn't wager any money that you are not ready to lose. When it moves away from entertainment into "needing" to win, you will always get into trouble.
Tonight's Pick: Going with the over at +41.5
TwistedFans.com's Betting Scale (here to refered to as the TBS): 4
Pictured: Krisandra, who appeared on Fear Factor before monday night football, is a Minnesota Timberwolves cheerleader and afraid of eating spiders.
With a current record of 9-1-1 against the spread (and another 3-0 in additional bets not posted), TwistedFans.com is clearly the best site to get your sports book advice! In fact, if you ignore the bets only placed for the sake of betting, TwistedFans is a perfect 9-0 on publicized wagers (12-0 counting unpublicized wagers). Sure, there's a (lot) of luck involved, but we're still kicking the crap out of just about every other site picking against the odds.
Now, just to show you we're not in it for the money (your money, at least), we'll explain a common gambling advice scam. Here's how it works:
A 900 number is set up, and ads are placed stating that for a low, introductory price (let's say $19.99), callers will be given the "pick of the week". If their pick doesn't win, the site will refund 100%, maybe even 150% of the price. Sure enough, the pick comes through, and so the callers return the following week. Only now the price has gone up, this time to $40, but the same guarantee applies.
"But wait", you say, "if they're offering 150% refunds (and paying them), how could this possibly be a scam?".
Ok, try to keep up....
As the calls come in, the 900 number will flip flop on the same bet. For example, using tonights game of Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago, the advice hotline will recommend Green Bay to the first caller, and then Chicago to the second caller. After 100 calls, they'll have recommended GB to 50 people, and Chicago to the rest. Now, 50 people will lose, and ask for the 150% money back guarantee, which will come to the grand total of $1,500. However, since 100 people called, the hotline will have collected $2,000, leaving them with a tidy profit of $500 for answering the phones.
The reason they tend to double the cost each week is they know the losers probably won't call back. To make up for this reduction in calls, they raise the cost, which the gullible winners will accept because the "winning" track record increases the percieved value of the data. Thus, even if 1/2 the callers never return, by doubling their cost, they'll manage to maintain their profits week after week. And with any luck, the folks who are lucky enough to have been given the winning picks will entice their friends to call as well. This will continue as long as they have callers willing to call back.
So there you have it!
[Disclaimer: TwistedFans.com and it's affiliates make no guarantees about the accuracy of their picks and are provided only for entertainment purposes. TwistedFans.com urges their readers to only bet legally and in control.]
Possibly the scariest story I ever read was that of the Zodiac Killer. It might have something to do with the fact that I was 13 and reading the story while at summer camp, but it was frightening none-the-less. For those of you unfamiliar with it, the Zodiac was a serial killer in and around San Francisco during the late 60's and early 70's. Although never caught, many amateur crime buffs had their theories. Now, the New York Post is suggesting the Zodiac Killer is 54-year-old William Mentzer - who's serving life without the possibility of parole. It will be interesting to see the results of a DNA & finger print tests. Perhaps this mystery has finally been solved.
When the yankees' playoff tickets went on sale last week, my friends and I hit the phones. After wearing out the redial buttons, we finally manged to secure tickets to game 1 of the division series, date TBD. Tonight, we find out TBD means Tuesday at 1 pm. Now I understand true fans must suffer for the good of their teams (afterall, I am a Rutgers fan), but expecting 30,000+ people to get an afternoon off from work with only 27 hours notice is insane. Who's responsible for this bullshit? Seriously, I want a name!
Ok, TwistedFans.com's gambling credibility took a hit on Monday night, but it's not my fault. In fact, let's chalk Monday up to the alcohol talking and pretend it never happened, ok? But just for the record, my second bet ended up pushing.
On to week 4 in the NFL, or as TwistedFans.com calls it, the Bargain Basement Betting Week. The top teams will seperate from the inconsistent teams ([cough]Green Bay[cough]) and next week Vegas' sharks will have the odds down cold. So enjoy the last week of the easy picks, because it's about to get a lot tougher.
Here's where your money should be:
Tennessee (+3) over Pittsburg.
TwistedFans.com Betting Scale: 7
You might want to consider taking this team without the points.
Indianapolis (-2) over New Orleans.
TwistedFans.com Betting Scale: 6
Kansas City (-3) over Baltimore.
TwistedFans.com Betting Scale: 9
Carolina (-6) over Atlanta
TwistedFans.com Betting Scale: 8
You can't help but root for Jake Delhomme, so get your bets in while you can. Next week, Vegas will realize how many people love this guy and adjust the spread accordingly.
For those who care, Carolina is my pick in the elimination pool. At the start of the season, I expected GB to be my pick in week 4, but Arizona changed that plan. Having said that, TwistedFans.com does not condone betting against Favre on a monday night game.
That's all for this week, and remember, gambling's only a problem if you're losing.
Thanks for reading!
The bachelor guy has a horrendously goofy laugh. One of the potentials however is an ex-L.A. Clippers Spirit Team member (2002-2003 not 2003-2004) named Lindsay. I got kicked out for imitating the doofy bachelor's laugh before I could see if she got a rose -- but I figured I'd see if I could find a picture of her and post it anyhow.
Ok, I'll be the first to admit that tonight's bet is not very well thought out, but I feel like gambling so screw it! We're going out on a limb and letting a small, repeat small, wager ride on Oakland (+3) and the over (23+ points), both just for the first half. As for the TF betting scale is concerned, this one is about a 2 out of 10.
[Update: Like I said, there wasn't much thought behind that bet. It wasn't even entertaining. After 3 possessions, it was obvious Denver was destroying Oakland. Not known for quiting, TF's has put a somewhat larger bet down on Denver +3 for the second half. And just for good measure, we took Zito to win for the A's.]
[Update: Lost, Pushed, Won. Not the smartest bets today (except for the Zito bet, I wish I saw that earlier), but with a little luck we walk away even. ]
Local bookies are scum. Not only do they artificially inflate the spread when they know their clients plan to bet with the local team, but they also cheat on parlays. If a person bets two or more teams, and 1 or more teams push, the vegas rule is to ignore the pushes and treat the bet as if it was made without it. However, local bookies will often tell you that unless you WIN every bet, your parlay will lose.
For example, if you bet a 3 team parlay, and 1 team pushes, Vegas treats this as if you bet a 2 team parlay and never picked the game that pushed. On a two team parlay with one team pushing, Vegas will treat it as a straight 1 team bet. Not so with Vinny the local bookie. It's the same as if he changed the spread 1/2 point AFTER you bet.
So, go find yourself a decent online sports book. These guys are happy to take your money without cheating, and have never given
Ok, so now that you know how to bet, the only question is who to bet. This week, my top pick is Kansas City over Houston, - 7 points. Now, this isn't a "bet the farm" opportunity (that was last week, with Miami over NJ's Team B), but gets about an 7 out of 10 on TwistedFans.com's betting scale.
In case your wondering, these have been my picks so far this season:
- Rutgers over Buffalo, - 12 [Win]
- Rutgers over Michigan, + 14 [Win]
- Rutgers over Army, -7 [Win]
- Miami over the Jets, -3 [Win]
- Giants vs. Dallas, over 36 [Win]
[Update by KCebo] Here are some fashion week highlights forwarded to me from Big D.
Vanity Date recently launched providing hot singles with what they really want in a date: an equally hot single. According to the site's About page, Vanity Date is "the world's most judgemental, shallow dating website. At Vanity Date we have a vision of creating the largest database of the world's most good looking, rich and superficial people." [via Adrants]
Also, If you're in Brooklyn, here's a girl looking for a bang.
Twenty somethings in the nineties rejected the traditional working-class American lifestyle because (a) they were smart enough to realize those values were unsatisfying and (b) they were totally f'ing lazy.
But why?
Because of Empire Strikes Back.
Luke Skywalker was the original Gen X'er. For one thing he was incessantly whiny and two he was exhaustively educated about things that had little practical value.
(excerpted from Sex, Drugs Cocoa Puffs)
Johnny Cash's cover of NIN's Hurt.
Manhattan's Supreme Court ruled against the City's adult business ban, calling it, weirdly enough, unconstitutional. [via Gawker]
Forget Britney -- love Mya or Jessica Simpson or the mad pony girls...
MELISSA, CHARITY, HILLARY
Good article in the NYT on one of the best groups in Hip Hop and their upcoming album.
Pixies reuniting.
Sophia Coppola directs Kate Moss in the new White Stripes video for I just don't know what to do with myself.
This sounds awesome: Memento director Christopher Nolan will direct Christian Bale, best known as Patrick Bateman from the movie American Psycho, in "Batman: Year One" which focuses on Bruce Wayne's first year as a crime fighter. [via Wizbang]
Finally, I recommend you read Tony Pierce's "i hate this fucking day".
Herbert Kornfeld layz down tha list o' rulez tha day care peeps best heed when tending to hiz shawtie. Feel him?
1. Make sure he wear his goddamn sweata.
2. Don't feed him none o' that nasty-ass strained-carrot shit his mama give him.
5. He can watch tha show wit tha freaky puppet bloodsucka that counts off tha numbahz.
6. Don't let none o' tha shortiez use his special sippy-cup, neither.
For the whole story go to the onion.
Dolphins: Pamela & Heather
Maxim: Pamela & Heather
Eagles: Adrienne
Maxim: Adrienne
Cowboys: Heather
Maxim: Heather
- Anquan Boldin: "I think the numbers I put up (217 yards receiving) got overshadowed by the loss."
- Lawyer Milloy: "I’m wearing a different uniform that feels strange, and looking though a different colored face-mask at my teammates from Monday across the field."
- Joe Jurevicius: "The second touchdown was a little bit behind me and I tried to tip it to myself. Luck was behind me and it worked."
-
September 8, 2003
Shockey
Diane Hill goes head-up with the biggest mouths in the NFL.Who’s the biggest pussy in the NFL?
Shockey has now replaced Tyson as the most quoteable sports figure. Don't miss what he had to say about Parcells either. Should be a good game this week; I wonder if there's a bounty on Shockey for Roy Williams to collect.
Every defensive back. They’re all so small. When I catch the ball and I see this little defensive back, you know I’m gonna beat him up.
Who do you think is the dirtiest player in the game?
Chad Brown from Seattle. He’s dirty, but he’s a great player and he’s fun to play against. He’ll punch you, shove a knee in your back—I wish they’d let us do more things like that. There are a lot of dirty players out there, including myself. If I get a cheap shot on somebody, I’m gonna take it.
We hear some coaches encourage players to fight during practice. Is that true?
I get in fights all the time. I fought (linebacker) Brandon Short on our team last year. Our coach kinda likes it; it gets the practice going. In college, I was pretty good about that. If you want to get practice over with, fight somebody.
Do you sleep with a different girl every night?
No, I don’t sleep… But I could definitely sleep with a different girl every night. But I don’t go up and say, “Hey, I’m Jeremy Shockey.” Half the time I tell them I’m in the petroleum distribution agency—I pump gas. So I get ’em off not with my name, but just by talking to ’em.
Right… But do you think you would get laid just as much if you weren’t playing in the NFL?
No. Probably not
How many girls have you had sex with?
You know, I lost count. I don’t know, about 100.
Are they waiting for you outside the games?
I think they’re waiting outside this restaurant for me right now.
What’s your biggest sexual fantasy?
A threesome with a mother and her two twins—that’d be the best!
If you could have sex with anybody right now, who would it be?
Right now? You. You’re a beautiful woman, and I’d like sex with you right now.
Eagles Cheerleaders New Look
A new year. A new stadium. And for the Eagles Cheerleaders, that means a new look.
The Eagles Cheerleading squad unveiled a sleek new uniform Monday night in the inaugural game at Lincoln Financial Field.
The new outfits were the handiwork of noted design expert, Vera Wang. "Until you see them in that moment where they're really performing, and you've got the excitement of the stadium and the crowd, that's when it really all becomes real." [philadelphiaeagles.com
September 5, 2003
Schiano Man
Rutgers, fresh off it's win against perennial powerhouse Buffalo, has a big game this week against Michigan State. Win or Lose, the most important thing is that Rutgers plays tough and makes the game competitive. That being said, I can't help but think we're capable of pulling off the upset.
So in honor of Rutger's football imminent victory, I now present, "Schiano Man" [Sung to the tune of Billy Joel's Piano Man]!
It's one o'clock on a Saturday.
[Sorry, I don't know the original author. If anyone knows, please post it in the comments so I can give proper credit!]
The regular crowd shuffles in.
There's on old man sitting next to me
who remembers when the home team would win.
He says, "Greg, can you bring us a victory?
I'm old enough to know how it goes.
And it's sad and it's sweet, and this team could compete
when John Bateman wore coaches clothes."
La, da-da, da-de-da, la-da, da-de-da, da-da-da-dum.
Win us a game, you're the Schiano man.
Win us a game or two.
Well, we're all in the mood for a victory
or soon you won't coach at RU.
Now John selling tix is a friend of mine.
He gets me my seats for free.
And he's quick with a joke or some ice for your Coke
but there's someplace that he'd rather be.
He says, "Bill, West Virginia is killing us."
And the smile runs away from his face.
"Well, I"m sure that I coulda gone to Syracuse
but my Dad got me into this place."
La, da-da, da-de-da, la-da, da-de-da, da-da-da-dum.
Now, Paul is the head of the booster club
which never impresses his wife.
And he's talking with Sammy, who roots for Miami
and probably will do so for life.
And the quarterback's practicing getting sacked
'cause the linemen can't turn on a dime.
Yes, they're sharing a drink called "Virginia Tech"
'cause Schiano was wrong, it ain't time.
Win us a game, you're the Schiano man.
Win us a game or two.
Well, we're all in the mood for a victory
or soon you won't coach at RU.
It's a pretty good crowd for a Rutgers game.
About twelve thousand fans filled with bile.
But it's forty-one grand who can fit in the stands
and forget about wins for a while.
And Route 18 sounds like a carnival.
Easton Avenue smells like a beer.
And we're well past the day we can blame Terry Shea.
So, hey, Greg! Why are we losing here?
La, da-da, da-de-da, la-da, da-de-da, da-da-da-dum.
Win us a game, you're the Schiano man.
Win us a game or two.
Well, we're all in the mood for a victory
or soon you won't coach at RU.
Britney's performance sucked
but it was definitely worth watching with the sound off.
September 4, 2003
Brain-Dead Riders
I've been a licensed motorcyclist for about 9 years now, and I'm a strong supporter of wearing protective clothing. After seeing fellow riders suffer through skin graphs and hearing horror stories of limbs ripped from bodies, it's practically common sense. Even for short rides, there's no justification to go without full battle gear, let alone without a helmet.
So when another state repeals their helmet law, I have to question why. Maybe some riders like having debris, bugs, mud, water, washer fluid, and rocks bounce off their face, but do they really like dying? And if repealing these laws is such a good idea, why do we still have seat belt laws?
Sex, Drugs and Cocoa Puffs
Two views on Chuck Klosterman's Sex, Drugs and Cocoa Puffs:
Mark Ames: I have found the metaphor for everything vile in my generation, and its name is Chuck Klosterman. I cannot ever recall reading a book as toxic, disingenuous and stupid as Klosterman’s new collection of essays. [NY Press]
Whereas I like it. Especially this line: "But because I was too young to understand that rock music was supposed to be cool, I played Glass Houses in my basement ad nauseam and in that weird second grade way I studied its contents." Fuck Mark Ames, this shit makes me laugh.
September 3, 2003
Queer Eyes For Product Placements
I caught the latest episode of Queer Eye For The Straight Guy yesterday. For those of you who are not familiar with the show, each episode revolves around 5 gay men (the "fabulous five") helping an uncoordinated, style-deprived, straight man impress his not-so-good looking real life girlfriend. Anyway, the show has been something of phenomenon and apparently the show's budget has improved because of it. For example, I think the first show featured a guy getting a haircut, some spray paint, and a few tips on trimming his nose-hairs. Yesterday, they gave the guy a new Upper West Side condo and cosmetic surgery.
Another side-effect of going main-stream is the eventual sell out. For example, no longer was the straight guy getting a new pair of shoes, he was now getting a new pair of "John Madden shoes available in hard to find sizes". It wasn't a shirt, it was a "Burgundy Shirt". But the absolute low point was when they took the straight guy to style his hair, paused, turned and held up an electric toothbrush. "Before we style your hair, I just wanted to show you this fabulous Oral-B brush. Oral-B power toothbrushes offer exceptional features and performance benefits. In fact, an independent landmark study has concluded that only the oscillating-rotating power toothbrush technology, pioneered by Oral-B, was shown to be superior to manual toothbrushes. And let's not forget the great storage compartments built in!". Uh... Yeah... what's this have to do with his hair again?
September 2, 2003
Golfer Beats Odds!
The BBC previously reported that a 76 year old woman beat 100 Million to 1 odds by hitting 2 hole in ones during the same round. After closer inspection by TwistedFans.com, it have been revealed that, in reality, she only beat 3 to 1 odds by successfully cheating her playing partners.
What Bush Isn't Telling Us
I've hear both Pentagon and White House officials say that the media is making too much out of the death toll in Iraq. What the same officials fail to address is the roughly 10 soldiers injured each day. We need a better strategy for rebuilding Iraq, and we need it now.
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Posted by K-Cebo at 11:55 PM | comment