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A Statistical Model to Select MLB All-Stars That We Can All Live With


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Issue #53

Trying to determine who deserves to be selected to the All-Star Game at the mid-point of each season is no easy task. Each year brilliant statistical minds try to create the perfect formula for determining who is "the best" player in baseball.

Whether it's the OPS, OBP, RC, SecA or GIDP each formula fails to cover every type of hitter. For example the OPS or On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage Indicator, which is calculated thusly: (Hits + Walks + HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) + (Total Bases/AB). Confused? Yes. Plus this indicator fails to consider hitters such as Ichiro who doesn't go after the long ball since Total Bases are calculated thusly: (Hits + 2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)).

A single formula therefore can not compare every type of All-Star caliber hitter (avoiding the fact it completely ignores defense). As a result, every current formula fails and the choices for the All-Star starters are left to the fans. However, this causes even more debate because of the number of players vying for 30th man honors on his squad. Ventura deserves to be there more than Hillenbrand. But it's altogether a different debate as to whether Ventura deserves it more than Chavez.

The reserves are then hand picked by last year's World Series managers. However, this also proves ineffective since that manager overloads the All-Star Squad with players from his own team no matter how they fail to match up against the top players left off the squad. Is Damian Miller really that deserving, especially over Paul LoDuca?

So what are honest fans (who don't spend 18 hours a day on the Internet voting for their favorite player) to do? TwistedFans is here to offer a solution that requires the use of Factors and Multipliers that will negate overzealous fans, manager and Elias Bureau type statistical geeks. As we know, the system already has certain built in catches such as requiring an All-Star from each team even Tampa Bay. We suggest the addition of even more built in catches.

Starters - Voting Factors and Multipliers

Grant Hill Factor: Every year in the NBA Grant Hill is somehow voted as a starter for the NBA All Star Game despite the fact that he doesn't even play a single game. This year we could use the reciprocal of this factor to eliminate Manny Ramirez.

The Boston Braves Multiplier: Votes for Red Sox or Braves are automatically multiplied by 1.4 since fans from Georgia or Mass are either too drunk or too dumb to remember to vote for their All-Stars.

The Florida Multiplier: Any All-Star Votes originating from Florida are automatically allotted to Devil Rays or Marlins players (if any) since these fans are completely incapable of punching their ballots correctly.

The Shinjo Multiplier: Votes originating from across the Pacific are multiplied by 0.5 -- how the hell else does Shinjo end up fourth in voting for NL OF?

This Multiplier should also be applied to teammates of Japanese players who are voted on by Internet crazed Japanese teenagers. Don't worry, Ichiro still is the #1 overall vote-getter among AL OF.

Gayness Multiplier: If a member of the media, fellow player or your own coach calls you "Out" then your votes are multiplied by 1.25 to account for possible homophobic treatment. While this factor does nothing for Mike Piazza who already has a strong "Queens" contingency, TF has learned that Chuck Knoblauch has just announced that he is now an official homosexual from April 1 to Mid July each year.

As an added bonus for All-Star selection, those players capable of carrying their wives around the base paths during a rain delay get 200,000 extra votes.
The Slammin Steroid Multiplier: Votes for players suspected of Steroid abuse will seem overly inflated and may explode into fits of anger at any moment, but in reality they carry infinitiseminally small weight (0.25) when applied (as do the balls in these players scrotal sacs).

Small Market/Large Market Multiplier: In an effort to reward those teams with the largest fan base, TV markets, marketing deals and pay roles, all votes for New York players will be counted twice whereas votes from K.C., Minnesota and Milwaukee will be discounted by 1/3.

Reserves - Statistical Factors and Multipliers

The Bob Brenly Factor: In order to avoid coaches who are complete morons from selecting the reserves (Spivey, Miller, Santiago, Luis Gonzalez) they will be limited to selecting players from a special list created by the managers of the other teams in their division. Therefore, Jeff Kent, Paul LoDuca, Ryan Klesko and Larry Walker will replace Brenly's previous selections.

Steinbrenner Factor: In case of a tie, the player that gets paid the most money is in. Thus Ventura over Chavez or Hinske.

The All-Star Statistical Model Multiplier Formula to Select the Best Players in Baseball: (RBI) + (SB -CS) + (R-HR) + (BB +HBP) / (AB+HBP+BB+SF) = Batting All-Star. I'm too lazy to figure this out, but one thing is for sure... it would eliminate unworthy selections like Shea, Rolen, and at least two undeserving AL shortstops.


K-Cebo Satashi vote for Alfonso Soriano was counted once.
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